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Apple Takes the Lead as Samsung Stumbles
From January to March 2025, Apple captured 19% of the market share, with its sales increasing by 4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, Samsung’s market share dropped to 18%, experiencing a decline of 5% despite launching several new products. The release of the Galaxy S25 range at the end of January, followed by more affordable models from the A series, was not enough to reverse the trend.
The competition between the two giants remains tight, but the shift in leadership is symbolic. This marks the first time Apple has clearly dominated a market that has historically been led by the Korean giant.
The iPhone 16: A Surprising Hit?
Positioned as affordable
(relatively speaking), the iPhone 16, launched in February, seems to have resonated well with consumers, especially in India and Japan—two markets where Apple has made significant gains. This model, which replaced the iPhone SE, boosted Apple’s sales towards the end of the quarter, reversing a previously dull momentum.
Apple also benefited from a relatively calm innovation front, while the excitement around generative AI and foldable smartphones has struggled to capture widespread consumer interest.
A Slight Recovery in the Global Market
The global smartphone market is reportedly on the rise again, with a 3% increase year-over-year. Chinese manufacturers are particularly benefiting from this uptick: Xiaomi’s sales rose by 5%, Vivo’s by 6%, and the category labeled Others
—which includes Motorola and Honor—also saw a 6% increase in sales. Together, these secondary players now account for 33% of the market, indicating a significant fragmentation of the sector.
Despite this rebound, Counterpoint remains cautious about the coming months. The firm is concerned about a potential slowdown by the end of the year, partly due to lukewarm consumer interest in mobile AI and foldable devices (and a bit of price inflation due to US taxes). These are areas that Samsung has been highlighting in its latest product lines.
On the other hand, Apple might further widen the gap if these trends continue, with anticipation for its September releases, including the iPhone 17 Air and possibly an AI-focused iPhone.
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