As the iPhone 17 launch is just a few months away, analysts at Counterpoint Research are lowering their forecasts for the global smartphone market. The reasons behind this adjustment include the uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies and a slowdown in demand from China, both of which are critical markets for Apple.
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Global Growth Expectations Cut
Initially, Counterpoint Research had forecasted a 4.2% growth in global smartphone shipments by 2025. However, this estimate has now been more than halved to just 1.9%. Several factors contribute to this significant reduction: ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, tariff repercussions affecting pricing, and a lackluster response from the Chinese market to government subsidies.
North America, in particular, is expected to see a notable impact. Counterpoint now predicts a drop in smartphone sales, especially affecting market leaders like Apple and Samsung.
A primary reason for this downturn is the anticipated price increases, largely due to tariffs that manufacturers are likely to pass on to consumers. So far, Apple has managed to absorb much of these costs. Nevertheless, the burden is growing, with estimated costs nearing one billion dollars for this quarter, according to some sources. This makes a price hike for the iPhone 17 an increasingly plausible scenario.
Unstable Tariff Pressures
The business environment remains fraught with uncertainty. Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened additional tariffs, though these have been “on hold” for now. However, the mere possibility of new trade barriers is enough to skew analyst forecasts, affecting both pricing strategies and logistics.
Counterpoint’s current projections assume a stable scenario through 2025, but admits that any worsening of the situation could lead to further downward revisions.
While Apple has yet to confirm any price increases, the company may find it challenging to continue absorbing cost hikes indefinitely without impacting its profit margins. A moderate price increase for the iPhone 17, particularly for the Pro models or those with higher storage options, seems to be the most likely response—especially if Apple aims to maintain its premium product image while managing a pressured American and Chinese market.