iPhone Sales Hold Strong Despite Trump's Turbulent Policies

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According to the latest data released, Canalys is less optimistic than Counterpoint Research, noting a slight decline where its peers see a modest recovery. However, this could be seen as the classic half-full or half-empty scenario, as it reflects a marginal contraction indicating continued cautious consumer demand in an uncertain and volatile global economic environment.

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Samsung Maintains Leadership, Apple Holds Strong in Second

In the manufacturer rankings, Samsung remains at the forefront with a 19% market share, driven largely by the success of its Galaxy A series, which is extremely popular. Apple follows with a 16% market share, while Xiaomi rounds out the top three with a steady 15%.

Meanwhile, vivo and TRANSSION, though less known in some Western markets, hold the fourth and fifth spots respectively, each capturing 9% of the market share in bustling emerging markets.

A Pressured Market, Yet Resilient Manufacturers

According to Runar Bjørhovde, a senior analyst at Canalys/Omdia, despite a slowdown in Q2, due to the end of the post-pandemic renewal wave and still timid demand, most manufacturers have demonstrated stable and resilient performances.

Manufacturers are now more precisely adjusting their production targets to avoid surplus inventory. A notable exception is the United States, where uncertainties around future trade policies of the Trump administration have led brands like Apple, Samsung, and Motorola (Lenovo) to maintain high stock levels (the so-called charters), in anticipation of potential tariff increases.

Cautious Yet Positive Outlook for the Second Half

Amber Liu, head of smartphone research at Canalys/Omdia, remains optimistic, betting on stability by 2025. Many consumers who delayed their purchases in the first half of the year might lean towards upcoming major sales events, particularly the end-of-year shopping festivals.

In this context, pricing strategies and attractive promotions will be more crucial than ever. Canalys points to the success enjoyed by Huawei and Apple during the 618 Festival in China last May. Additionally, the latest launches highlight key selling points to attract buyers: sleeker designs, ecosystem innovations, and promises of enhanced privacy protection.

Essentially, the anticipated recovery will rely on price-sensitive consumers, who are on the lookout for good deals to replace aging devices. With healthy stock levels, the market could rebound as early as the second half of 2025.