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While the investment bank does not anticipate groundbreaking changes for the iPhone 17, it is more optimistic about the long-term outlook. The price target is currently set at $230 but could rise to $250 by the end of 2026, thanks to stable demand and sustained growth in Services.
No Super Cycle for iPhone 17… But “Robust” Demand Expected
JP Morgan downplays the excitement around the iPhone 17 Pro. The bank does not foresee a super-cycle of upgrades, as the technical features of the upcoming models are well-known and unlikely to trigger a massive wave of purchases (that’s stated…).
As for the integration of Apple Intelligence, it is not expected to be a significant growth driver in the short term, mainly due to its gradual rollout and limited compatibility with only the newest models.
The bank also anticipates a price increase for the iPhone 17 range, which should offset sales volume stagnation and maintain stable revenue in Q4. They project $43.9 billion in iPhone revenue, whereas the market expects about $46.2 billion.
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Increasingly Promising Services Sector
Despite this caution, JP Morgan predicts better-than-expected results for Q3 2025: estimated revenue of $89.6 billion versus a consensus of $89.2 billion, and $39.9 billion for the iPhone, slightly above the anticipated $39.8 billion.
But it is particularly in the Services segment where analysts see a strong potential for surprise growth, justifying a higher price target revision by the end of 2026.
Uncertain Times, Yet Apple Stands Strong
JP Morgan, however, outlines several risks: exposure to the legal conflict between the DOJ and Google, which could cost Apple up to $20 billion annually from the default search engine agreement, and trade tensions related to tariffs.
Nevertheless, Apple has taken steps to mitigate the impact of tariff policies by adjusting its supply chain. Its track record of financial resilience continues to reassure investors.