The effects of declining birth rates are becoming increasingly visible across Asia. Following in the footsteps of Japan and South Korea, Taiwan is now grappling with the harsh reality of school closures due to a rapidly shrinking population. This trend, driven by plummeting fertility rates, is reshaping the island’s educational landscape and raising questions about its demographic future.
Taiwan’s Fertility Rate Hits a Record Low
According to Taiwan’s National Development Council (NDC), the island’s fertility rate has steadily declined over the past two decades. In 2002, the average number of children per woman was 1.3, but by 2023, that figure had dropped to just 0.87, one of the lowest in the world. During the same period, the annual number of births plummeted from 248,000 to 136,000.
This decline is tied to a range of social and cultural factors, including shifting attitudes among young adults. Many now choose to delay or forego marriage and parenthood, citing financial pressures, career priorities, and a preference for personal freedom. Fewer births mean fewer children entering schools, leading to a dramatic reduction in demand for educational institutions.
School Closures on the Rise
Over the past decade, Taiwan has seen a steady wave of school closures, particularly in urban areas like Taipei. Reports indicate that between 2011 and 2021, the number of students in primary and secondary schools dropped by nearly 22%, falling from 2.3 million to fewer than 1.8 million.
A striking example is the closure of Chung Hsing High School, a private secondary institution that shut its doors in 2019 due to financial difficulties stemming from low enrollment. Today, the once-bustling campus lies eerily quiet, with desks and chairs piled in its empty playground.
The problem is not limited to secondary education. Universities and vocational schools are also struggling to stay afloat. Taiwan News reported in 2021 that declining enrollment has left many schools unable to attract students, with up to 19,000 teaching positions at risk. By 2028, experts estimate that between 40 and 50 private universities could be forced to close.
The Military Faces Recruitment Challenges
The demographic decline is also impacting Taiwan’s military recruitment efforts. A Strait Times report revealed that in 2022, Taiwan experienced its lowest recruitment numbers in a decade, with fewer than 118,000 new recruits. As the island faces increasing tensions with China, concerns are mounting over the availability of skilled personnel, particularly in the Air Force, which has seen significant staffing shortages. Antonia Finnane, a professor at the University of Melbourne, emphasized that the military’s manpower issues are worsening as the pool of eligible young recruits shrinks.
Wider Implications of the Population Crisis
Taiwan’s demographic challenges extend beyond the classroom and the military. A declining population could hinder economic growth, strain healthcare systems, and challenge social security frameworks. The ripple effects of fewer births are reshaping the nation’s future, forcing policymakers to address not only the immediate issue of school closures but also the long-term sustainability of its workforce and infrastructure.
While Europe and other regions may still be far from experiencing empty schools, Taiwan’s experience serves as a stark reminder of how population decline can fundamentally alter a nation’s social fabric. Addressing this challenge requires creative solutions and a renewed focus on encouraging family growth while adapting to the realities of a smaller population.