Growth Projected Through 2029
Today, International Data Corporation (IDC) shared its forecast for the global smartphone market over the next five years. According to their Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, the global smartphone market is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2025. This would bring the total volume to 1.26 billion units. If these predictions hold, this would mark the second consecutive year of growth following a 6.1% increase in 2024.
Looking ahead to the years through 2029, growth is expected to slow slightly but maintain a positive pace with an average annual increase of 1.6% during the 2024-2029 period. Despite the elongation of refresh cycles and the growing market headwinds from used smartphones, the popularity of smartphones is expected to sustain.
However, there’s a slight setback for Cupertino’s ambitions, as IDC estimates that Android smartphones are expected to grow 40% faster than iOS this year, with a year-over-year growth of 2.5%, fueled by a 5.6% increase in China, thanks to the new government subsidy program which is likely to benefit Android more than Apple
. Yet, China appears to be resisting Apple, where iOS is expected to decline again by 1.9%.
iOS Expected to Hold Strong
More broadly, iOS is expected to see a 1.8% increase thanks to strong growth in the United States, Apple’s largest market, coupled with rapid annual increases of 18% and 9% in emerging markets like India and Indonesia. Recent negotiations and agreements reached by Tim Cook in these two countries are expected to prove beneficial for the California-based company.
Among other strengths for Apple, the ongoing rollout of Apple Intelligence and the recent launch of the mid-priced iPhone 16 are also expected to boost demand and keep average selling prices (ASP) high for Apple, helping it to capture 45% of the market share in 2025 despite only accounting for 19% of shipments
.
Meanwhile, the U.S. smartphone market is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2025. This growth is anticipated despite the new import duties of 10% levied on goods from China, including smartphones, as an aging installed base ready for renewal is likely to positively impact shipments for the year.
Finally, it should be noted that the average selling price of smartphones is expected to increase slightly to $434 in 2025, despite the rise in entry-level Androids this year, thanks to the simultaneous premiumization of the high-end segment continuing in full swing. This average selling price is expected to maintain at this level and remain stable with a slight year-over-year decrease throughout the forecast period to hit $424 by 2029.
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